Polytrack and Horses for Courses

While a foal is far too young to be ridden, it is still able to learn skills it will need later in life. By the end of a foal's first year, it should be halter-broke, meaning that it allows a halter placed upon its head and has been taught to be led by a human at a walk and trot, to stop on command and to stand tied. The young horse needs to be calm for basic grooming, as well as veterinary care such as vaccinations and de-worming. A foal needs regular hoof care and can be taught to stand while having its feet picked up and trimmed by a farrier. Ideally a young horse should learn all the basic skills it will need throughout its life, including: being caught from a field, loaded into a horse trailer, and not to fear flapping or noisy objects. It also can be exposed to the noise and commotion of ordinary human activity, including seeing motor vehicles, hearing radios, and so on. More advanced skills sometimes taught in the first year include learning to accept blankets placed on it, to be trimmed with electric clippers, and to be given a bath with water from a hose. The foal may learn basic voice commands for starting and stopping, and sometimes will learn to square its feet up for showing in in-hand or conformation classes. If these tasks are completed, the young horse will have no fear of things placed on its back, around its belly or in its mouth.Some people, whether through philosophy or simply due to being pressed for time, do not handle foals significantly while they are still nursing, but wait until the foal is weaned from its dam to begin halter breaking and the other tasks of training a horse in its first year. The argument for gentling and halter-breaking at weaning is that the young horse, in crisis from being separated from its dam, will more readily bond with a human at weaning than at a later point in its life. Sometimes the tasks of basic gentling are not completed within the first year but continue when the horse is a yearling. Yearlings are larger and more unpredictable than weanlings, plus often are easily distracted, in part due to the first signs of sexual maturity. However, they also are still highly impressionable, and though very quick and agile, are not at their full adult strength.

Scott, good to see that you've joined the on-line generation. I make sure to pick up a Sun-Times before I go to the track.

Has the public figured out the AP polytrack or have the best horses been obvious standouts? Favorites are winning at at higher percentage than normal in '08. I agree that the Horses for Courses phenonmenon does apply to the polytrack but to a lesser extent than turf or sloppy main tracks.

My favorite angle so far early in the meet has been betting against horses who have had early speed success at Hawthorne (if there has been no rain at AP). Hawthorne was such a speed favoring track for most of the meet it made handicapping less fun. I do look at each horse's polytrack record but agree that each polytrack is unique.

When a horse is entered on the polytrack for the first time I do not discount it's past performances on dirt. A good horse will run fast on concrete if it is well prepared. Turf horses seem to prefer the polytrack versus the dirt but they are turf horses for a reason.

I look forward to your blogs for the remainder of the meet.

When it comes to AP Poly I only use AP Poly to rate the horse. It is AP"s Poly and there is no other like it. Those who rate off of dirt and turf will be seen carrying signs on Euclid towards the end of the meet.

Hi Scott,

Where is Jeremy Jet ? Remember when they first tried him on the turf? Good to see you are still around I live on the east coast now. I used to always enjoy your handicapping classes and speed figures.

Always The Best !

Don

I very much agree that "horses for courses applies" to artificial surfaces. There doesn't appear to be any dependable correlation between ability on dirt or turf to that on an artificial surface. Therefore you need to consider the horse's previous efforts on polytrack when handicapping a polytrack race. Polytrack is a unique surface and therefore must be handicapped differently than dirt or turf.

I have had success in polytrack races by using adjusted speed figures earned in previous polytrack races. If the horse has no current polytrack figures, I will use a polytrack figure from last years AP meet. This is much more effective that using a current dirt figure. I subscribe to Scott McMannis' newsletter and use his adjusted speed figures. I find his numbers to be superior to the Beyer numbers.

Additionally, in handicapping a polytrack race I am less concerned about track bias and the pace of the race than I would be for a dirt race unless there is a horse who could be "lone speed". Also you need to pay attention to trainers and jockey/trainer combinations that have had past success on polytrack.

If there is one phenomenon I have witnessed over the last two years it is the unmistakable effect that rain has on the poly surface over the one or two days after a heavy shower. Times quicken dramatically; witness opening day when middle and maiden claimers were approaching track record times or if you remember last year, Spotsgone's upset in the Hanshin came a day after a heavy downpour--and he ran the mile in 1:33 and change! I'm not yet convinced that it helps or hurts speed horses (Spotsgone's effort notwithstanding) but I do feel that any previous positive experience in the horse's PPs tends to increase the "after rain" effect.

I do not belive that there is a closing bias for a specific type of horse.Some one run style horse will show a kick but only at there perfered distance and class as usual.The workout times of some horse coming into a race have cast some doubt in my mind as to the objective ?

I have been dazzled by the way stretch horses seem to fly on the Polytrack once they come around the stretch and are heading for home.
When studying the past performances, I have started to focus on horses that were almost at the end at the beginning of the past races and then turned it on in the stretch and came in close to the leaders, even if they were not in the money. These horses are real contenders.

I have been dazzled by the way stretch horses seem to fly on the Polytrack once they come around the stretch and are heading for home.
When studying the past performances, I have started to focus on horses that were almost at the end at the beginning of the past races and then turned it on in the stretch and came in close to the leaders, even if they were not in the money. These horses are real contenders.

I have a question for you Scott. The track is always listed as fast in the past performances. How will I know if it's fast because it was dry, or fast because it stopped raining. With the dirt track I could figure out how it played because it was fast, muddy or good. How will I know this from the information I get on the poly track.

I think either a horse likes Polytrack a lot or not at all. Since the meet is still early, I use workouts as my main tool in handicapping.
I do like the fact that horses can win in different ways here in Arlington, whether on the lead or from behind. Some tracks with synthetic surfaces are impossible to figure out. I like Polytrack racing, but only if it is fair to all runners and not just closers.

Hi Scott...any chance you will be posting your Sun-Times picks in this blog? Many people dont subscribe to the S-T and the paper doesnt put your picks up online, for some reason...

I agree with the Horses for Courses phenomenon however I personally have been very cautious when wagering even this year on the polytrack at AP. If I am interested in a race, I will take into consideration the horse's record on synthetic surfaces and if there are 2 or more horses in the race without an artificial surface race under their belt I will usually skip the race. However if I am thinking Trifecta or Superfecta, and now even Super High 5, I may use those horses without polytrack experience on the bottom of the wager in the 3rd 4th and 5th spots.

Hopefully my patience pays off. Its still only May and we have a long meet ahead!

Matt-

Not sure what you mean by "beginner" but the "diamond" symbol in the form indicates race was on an "all weather" (or poly) track. As I said in my last entry, basically this is now a 3 surface sport, so pay attention to how well a horse has run on artificial surfaces (or better yet at Arlington)

If you don't have a list of sires who's offspring have run well on Poly,(Scott, maybe you have a list like this to share) and a horse hasn't run on poly in the past, some people believe that a horse who has run well on turf will handle the poly as well. (If the horse has never run on turf or poly, perhaps the turf tomlinson (needs to be at least 280) could help you a bit. Also, horses who come from Keeneland (also a poly track, but as a rule more talented horses compete there) seem to have done well so far at the meet.

Good Luck

Do any of you more experienced guys out there have any tips for beginning handicappers and how to figure out polytrack?

1. As far as "horses for courses" I think that "horses for surfaces" would be more applicable. The first key is to accept that this is now a 3 surface sport (Dirt, Turf, Artificial) and trying to use form from one to predict the outcome on another leads to losing tickets.

2.)I've done ok since the switch, and the key has been looking at the breeding. (Joe K. had a nice list last year, and a blogger from DRF put out a list this year that has been very predictive of horses who do well on Poly)

3.) Yes to an extent although terrible recent form usually has nothing to do with the surface and more to do with a problem with the horse As far as horses whove never run on poly BREEDING BREEDING BREEDING the sire and damn sire are critical and accurate predictors of how a horse will run on poly

Watching other tracks I saw a horse that may do well at one poly track, do poorly at another. Also, how much does a better drainage system improve the track. If a dirt track also improved their drainage system, would they also see an improvement?

I missed much of the first AP season, but am hopeful to be more active with it next year. So far, I'm looking for performances on the surface, same with Polytrack as I would with all suraces (dirt, turf, mud, slop, firm, yielding, etc.) to give me a clue, to expect possible improvement/deprovement if they have experience but are changing surfaces. With no experience on it, I'm having to at least keep that thought in mind when looking for a local wager - horses may or may not perform at their dirt level, would they contend if they did helps set a prelminary estimate, but the performance could vary, and if I do wager on or against one of those 'estamated' contenders, I'd better ask for slightly better odds to make up for it.

Yes I belive the "Horses for courses" applies.Also reguarding first time starters on poly give special consideration to those that have performed avg. to above avg.on turf courses as well as below avg. on dirt surfaces.These reasons have lead to a few nice winners this meet at arlington.